Investigating the spatiotemporal associations between meteorological conditions and air pollution in the federal state Baden-Württemberg (Germany).

When analyzing health data in relation to environmental stressors, it is crucial to identify which variables to include in the statistical model to exclude dependencies among the variables. Four meteorological parameters: temperature, ultraviolet radiation, precipitation, and vapor pressure and four outdoor air pollution parameters: ozone ( O 3 ), nitrogen dioxide ( NO 2 ), particulate matter ( P M 2.5 , P M 10 ) were studied on a daily basis for Baden-Württemberg (Germany). This federal state covers urban and rural compartments including mountainous and river areas. A temporal and spatial analysis of the internal relationships was performed among the variables using (a) cross-correlations, both on the grand ensemble of data as well as within subsets, and (b) the Local Indications of Spatial Association (LISA) method. Meteorological and air pollution variables were strongly correlated within and among themselves in time and space. We found a strong interaction between nitrogen dioxide and ozone, with correlation coefficients varying over time. The coefficients ranged from negative correlations in January (-0.84), April (-0.47), and October (-0.54) to a positive correlation in July (0.45). The cross-correlation plot showed a noticeable change in the correlation direction for O 3 and NO 2 . Spatially, NO 2 , P M 2.5 , and P M 10 concentrations were significantly higher in urban than rural regions. For O 3 , this effect was reversed. A LISA analysis confirmed distinct hot and cold spots of environmental stressors. This work examined and quantified the spatio-temporal relationship between air pollution and meteorological conditions and recommended which variables to prioritize for future health impact analyses. The results found are in line with the underlying physico-chemical atmospheric processes. It also identified postal code areas with dominant environmental stressors for further studies.

Temperature and particulate matter as environmental factors associated with seasonality of influenza incidence - an approach using Earth observation-based modeling in a health insurance cohort study from Baden-Württemberg (Germany).

BACKGROUND: Influenza seasonality has been frequently studied, but its mechanisms are not clear. Urban in-situ studies have linked influenza to meteorological or pollutant stressors. Few studies have investigated rural and less polluted areas in temperate climate zones. OBJECTIVES: We examined influences of medium-term residential exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), NO2, SO2, air temperature and precipitation on influenza incidence. METHODS: To obtain complete spatial coverage of Baden-Württemberg, we modeled environmental exposure from data of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We computed spatiotemporal aggregates to reflect quarterly mean values at post-code level. Moreover, we prepared health insurance data to yield influenza incidence between January 2010 and December 2018. We used generalized additive models, with Gaussian Markov random field smoothers for spatial input, whilst using or not using quarter as temporal input. RESULTS: In the 3.85 million cohort, 513,404 influenza cases occurred over the 9-year period, with 53.6% occurring in quarter 1 (January to March), and 10.2%, 9.4% and 26.8% in quarters 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Statistical modeling yielded highly significant effects of air temperature, precipitation, PM2.5 and NO2. Computation of stressor-specific gains revealed up to 3499 infections per 100,000 AOK clients per year that are attributable to lowering ambient mean air temperature from 18.71 °C to 2.01 °C. Stressor specific gains were also substantial for fine particulate matter, yielding up to 502 attributable infections per 100,000 clients per year for an increase from 7.49 µg/m3 to 15.98 µg/m3. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst strong statistical association of temperature with other stressors makes it difficult to distinguish between direct and mediated temperature effects, results confirm genuine effects by fine particulate matter on influenza infections for both rural and urban areas in a temperate climate. Future studies should attempt to further establish the mediating mechanisms to inform public health policies.